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OECD & IMF World Economic Outlook GDP Forecast 2009

Figure 1 & 2: Annual change of gross domestic product at market prices, in per cent

GDP forecast March 2009. Copyright 2009 Alexej Behnisch
GDP forecast March 2009. Copyright 2009 Alexej Behnisch

Figure 3: Spread between 2007 and forecasted 2009 rate, in percentage points (OECD forecast, see above)

Spread between 2007 and forecasted 2009 rate. Copyright 2009 Alexej Behnisch

Data Source: OECD Interim Economic Outlook (see PDF for details), IMF World Economic Outlook | Last updated: 25 April 2009



Key points

World economy will decline in 2009 for the first time since the Second World War

All major advanced economies will decline by at least 3 per cent

America and Britain - the primary culprits of the present crisis - will decline slower

Germany and Japan - major exporters of expensive consumer goods - will decline faster

France will experience a softer downturn than its peers in the West

China and India will still grow, but only at half the rate of 2007

Russia - heavily reliant on exporting energy and minerals - will face the biggest shock

Spread between 2007 and 2009 is huge everywhere, a challenge for all social systems

"The world economy is in the midst of its deepest and most synchronised recession in our lifetime caused by a global financial crisis and deepened by a collapse in world trade"

OECD, Interim Economic Outlook, 31 March 2009



Bonus Forecast Tracker Speed of the Downturn

Figure 4: Changing OECD forecast of GDP growth for the year 2009, in per cent

GDP forecast March 2009. Copyright 2009 Alexej Behnisch

Data: OECD Economic Outlook No 83 (Jun 08), Economic Outlook No 84 (Nov 08), Interim Economic Outlook (Mar 09)



Alexej Behnisch | abehnisch.com | See also: German election 2009 poll tracking on this website