Alexej Behnisch | Back to abehnisch.com home page | Last updated 1 October 2009

Opinion Poll Tracker Bundestagswahl 2009 Germany's Federal Election

Figure 1: Individual data points from each pollster, percentage of secondary vote (Zweitstimme)

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: individual data points from each pollster. Wahlumfragen Zweitstimme. Alexej Behnisch

Special Focus: The last month until 27 September 2009 (detail from figure 1)

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: individual data points from each pollster. Wahlumfragen Zweitstimme. Alexej Behnisch

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: individual data points from each pollster. Wahlumfragen Zweitstimme. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 2: Monthly composite of vote share, calculated from average of all five pollsters

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: monthly composite, average vote share. Wahlumfragen monatlicher Durchschnitt. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 3: Likely coalition scenario, based on monthly polling average (see above)

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: likely coalition scenario, monthly polling average. Wahlumfragen Koalition. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 4: Last six election results, 1990-2009

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: last five election results & current polling prediction. Wahlumfragen & bisherige Wahlergebnisse. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 5: Projection of parliamentary seats in next Bundestag, 25 September 2009

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Opinion poll tracker: projection of parliamentary seats in next Bundestag. Wahlumfragen & bisherige Wahlergebnisse. Alexej Behnisch

Note: My own calculation.
598 regular seats calculated based on September average poll of secondary votes (see above).
Uberhangmandate or extraordinary seats estimated by election.de (currently +15 for CDU/CSU and +8 for SPD).



Prediction of election outcome

- Angela Merkel CDU certain to remain chancellor

- Coalition partner uncertain: FDP or SPD?

- Unconstitutional Uberhangmandate likely to decide



Final Election Results Bundestagswahl 2009

Figure 6: Percentage of secondary vote (Zweitstimme)

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Final results: percentage of secondary vote, Zweitstimme. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 7: Gains and losses to 2005 result, percentage points

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Final results: gains and losses to 2005 result, percentage points. Alexej Behnisch

Figure 8: Parliamentary seats in new Bundestag

German election Bundestagswahl 2009 Final results: parliamentary seats, Bundestag. Alexej Behnisch



Poll Data: Germany's five leading pollsters: Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap

Sources: Wahlrecht.de (polling data), Bundeswahlleiter (official election results)

Related blog post: For how many does Merkel speak? (on the political legitimacy of the election result)

Contact: Email behnisch[at]gmail.com


Back to abehnisch.com home page | Last updated 1 October 2009